IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - 36

can actually come up with much
better assessments as to whether
forecasts are good or bad because
there's much more data out there.
As you know, making sense
of that big data, whether from
weather stations, satellite images
and so on-which could be tens of
terabytes a day at a minimum-to
improve both short-term and
longer-term forecasts is easier
said than done, so we're looking
at leveraging it in a smart way.
Q. In what way is your
approach smarter?
A. Well, we can now think
about new approaches to
forecasting-or solar forecasting
in this particular case-where we
actually use different forecast
models that are being produced
by governments and universities
around the world to understand
which one of those forecast
models-each with somewhat
different assumptions and
approaches to the physics-
works best under different
weather situations.
This is the basic thrust of what
we are doing here under the
Department of Energy project.
We're assimilating all of that
data out there to blend different
models, to find out which of
those models does the best job or
has done the best job in the past
under which weather conditions-
low pressure, high pressure and
so forth-and then use that to
come up with an optimal mixture
of these models to provide a
so-called "supermodel." That's
the bottom line of what we're
trying to do here.
Q. The name of this project is
Watt-Sun, a play off Watson.
If at all, how does Watson
technology factor into this?
A. We're adopting a mixture of
approaches to create an adaptive
blend of expert systems that can

JON SIMON/FEATURE PHOTO SERVICE FOR IBM

R&D

somewhat easily come up with
an optimal number. They don't
have to be just weather models
but also include different types of
forecasting techniques. That's the
approach we're using for this. Yes,
it is a machine-learning approach,
but there are different techniques
involved in this. In our case,
we're dealing with numbers and
blending them. This approach
involves constantly learning from
and improving forecasts.
Q. How timely are the
forecasts at this point?
A. Typically, grid system
operators have day-ahead
scheduling for what they call the
unit commitment process, as well
as 15-minute-ahead scheduling,
so you need to produce forecasts
depending on what the
application is. There are technical
reasons for why this is split into
day-ahead and 15-minute-ahead
scheduling, which are akin to,
say, having the correct number of
computing resources available in
a data center. You have to make a
decision on how many machines
you need for a job because it will
take some time to boot them.
Then, as the workload changes,
you can maybe idle some of the
machines and rent them out or
shut them down.

36 // AUGUST 2014 ibmsystemsmag.com

"When it comes to solar,
you need to be able to
predict the clouds quite well
-and there's nothing more
complex than clouds."
-Hendrik Hamann, IBM research manager for
Physical Analytics and Watt-Sun project leader

!
Watt-Sun
can forecast
anywhere from
15 minutes
to 1 month
in advance
_________
Spinning
Reserve refers
to power plants
put on standby
in case of energy
generation
fluctuations or
load changes

The same thing is true for the
power grid. You have to make a
decision a day ahead as to which
plants you're operating. Once
you've made that decision, some
of your other plants will be idling
in case the load picks up. If the
load does pick up, you have to be
ready to ramp up the idling plants
to meet demand. That's essentially
why we forecast anywhere from
15 minutes all the way to a month
ahead, so grid operators can be
prepared for potential loads from
solar-energy sources.
Q. Will this type of
forecasting save grid
operators money?
A. There's a term in the industry
called "spinning reserve," which
means some power plants exist
only because the generation or
the load might change-and of
course having those spinning
reserves costs money. This is like
a computer. Even if it's idle, it
still uses power.
So the bottom line is flattening
that out so when there's renewable
energy available, we can take full
advantage of it, with the grid operators being aware of it in advance
and saving money by perhaps
only firing up reserve plants when
they're for sure needed. That's
what forecasting buys you.


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IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014

Table of Contents
Editor's Desk: Killing cancer
IBM Perspective: Healthcare's grand challenge
Techbits: Shape-shifters in the sky
Partner PoV: An integration layer can beat rip-and-replace or custom code
Case Study: Fields of Dreams: MEDHOST accommodates growing healthcare providers with expanding field lengths
Cover Story: Paradigm Shift: How MD Anderson and Watson are transforming healthcare
Feature: Treating Healthcare’s Pain Points: IBM Watson pairs with Power Systems to bring new tools to medical service providers
Trends: IBM reference architecture for genomics brings power to research
R&D: The Watt-Sun program is poised to improve weather forecasting for solar energy
Solutions: Accelerator for .NET 5.0; Open Access for COBOL; Capture With Business-Items; Nitro AutoCode; Formtastic 5.4.5; Advanced Job Scheduler 12; Profound UI 5.0
Snapshot: Amy Hoerle
Reference Point - Global Events, Education, Resources for Power Systems
2014 Power Systems Solution Edition Product Index
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - Intro
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - Cover1
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - Cover2
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - 1
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - Table of Contents
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - 3
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - 4
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - Editor's Desk: Killing cancer
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - IBM Perspective: Healthcare's grand challenge
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - Techbits: Shape-shifters in the sky
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - Partner PoV: An integration layer can beat rip-and-replace or custom code
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - 9
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - 10
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - 11
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - Case Study: Fields of Dreams: MEDHOST accommodates growing healthcare providers with expanding field lengths
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - 13
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - 14
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - 15
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - 16
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - 17
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - Cover Story: Paradigm Shift: How MD Anderson and Watson are transforming healthcare
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - 19
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - 20
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - 21
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - 22
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - 23
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - Feature: Treating Healthcare’s Pain Points: IBM Watson pairs with Power Systems to bring new tools to medical service providers
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - 25
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - 26
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - 27
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - 28
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - 29
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - Trends: IBM reference architecture for genomics brings power to research
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - 31
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - 32
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - 33
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - R&D: The Watt-Sun program is poised to improve weather forecasting for solar energy
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - 35
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - 36
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - Solutions: Accelerator for .NET 5.0; Open Access for COBOL; Capture With Business-Items; Nitro AutoCode; Formtastic 5.4.5; Advanced Job Scheduler 12; Profound UI 5.0
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - 38
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - 39
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - Snapshot: Amy Hoerle
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - Cover3
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - Cover4
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - Reference Point - Global Events, Education, Resources for Power Systems
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - 2014 Power Systems Solution Edition Product Index
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - SE2
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems edition - August 2014 - SE3
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