IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - 38

Next
2009 to the first 11 days of August 2010, we’re showing a reduction of 246 crimes. We also like to do that on a year-to-date basis, comparing, for example, January 1 through August 11. And then year-to-year, comparing, for instance, August 2009 to August 2010, where we had a roughly 14.56 percent decrease in crime. That’s just 2010 alone. We’re seeing staggering numbers like this each and every day. As another example, when we started this in 2006, the MPD had received 41,699 reports of offenses against our citizens. For the same date in 2010, there were only 30,199 reports. That’s 11,500 fewer victims since we put this in place—and that’s just comparing 2006 to 2010. ISM: What prompted the MPD to consider analyt ics to help curb crime? WILLIAMS: Our police director knew that we had issues in the area. He knew something could be done, but he didn’t know what. In 2005, he partnered with the University of Memphis and their center for criminology and research, which was using SPSS software in their research, to put together a plan that would significantly reduce crime not just in Memphis, but in the entire area and that could be piloted by other agencies as well. After all, we do know and the United States attorney for the western district of Tennessee and put together a plan. We targeted an area where we knew that a lot of violent crimes were being committed—and the software showed times of the day in which we needed to be in that location. Immediately, we noticed we had an increase in arrests and a decrease in the violent crimes in that area. That was pretty much the tool or the mechanism for the pilot program that brought Blue CRUSH into the MPD. Through the use of Blue CRUSH and SPSS, we’ve been more successful than any other zero-tolerance operation we’ve ever had in the history of this police department. ISM: When developing your analytical models, what types of data do you choose to include? WILLIAMS: We factor in the weather, the lighting conditions, the day of the week, weekends. We factor in a number of things like the time of the year, the season of the year. One par t icular precinct recently had a 37-percent reduction in Blue CRUSH-focused crimes in one week, because we knew that was the last week before school started. And a lot of the crimes that occurred in that area were committed by juveniles, like burglaries and theft from vehicles. We knew that school was starting, witnesses, weapons recovered, names of suspects, et cetera. Then there’s another series of data sources that we rely on for the incident modeling. One is a download of past weather data for modeling purposes and weather forecasts for prediction purposes. Holiday calendars are obviously something we pick up externally from the police department. Two major payday cycles in Richmond are also picked up external to the police department. It’s the government payday cycle as well as another cycle reflecting large commercial employers in the city. Last but not least are the city events. We receive this data from a commercial firm that hosts the city’s website, Richmond.com. Wit h t his exter nal data —in concert with the incident data from the R ichmond PD —we’re able to characterize the crime incidents as a function of these factors. When similar factors such as city events and weather forecasts present in the future, we can predict that similar crime incident outcomes might also present. These predictions are displayed in a GIS (map) interface for the sake of simplicity. WILLIAMS: The greatest predictor of the future is the past. So what we’re able to do from a criminal aspect is download the last 29 days of data from our records-management system each Monday at 3 a.m. We’re then able to

“Through the use of Blue CRUSH and SPSS, we’ve been more successful than any other zero-tolerance operation we’ve ever had in the history of this police department.”
—John Williams, analysis unit manager, Memphis Police Department

that criminals have no boundaries. That’s basically why Blue CRUSH was developed. The key element to Blue CRUSH is that it’s a data-driven effort to reduce crime, but there’s a unique facet our director and the center for criminology and research wanted to address. We wanted to develop a collaborative effort with other agencies. Our pilot program really started through the use of the project Safe Neighborhoods, which is run out of our organized crime unit. Part of Safe Neighborhoods targeted gun-related crimes. We partnered with the county sheriff’s office, the marshall’s office, the district attorney
38
FEBRUARY 2011

so we put resources in high-density areas and saw positive results from doing so. HAFFEY: In Richmond, we have access to two major databases. One is called the 911 System, the Request For Service (RFS) System, which records when a citizen calls in and says there’s a noise in my backyard or my car was just stolen or someone was just shot. That’s recorded in the 911 Call For Service (CFS) System, which records the time and place of the incident and type, etc. If this call resulted in a response or some further action, then a recordsmanagement system handles other information such as the names of the

take that data and do what’s called geocoding by putting that information it into our mapping software. Once we do that and have it placed on the network, everyone else within the MPD can pull from that file from his or her precinct and create a large number of different analytical products. Sometimes we like to go back further than that. We like to take a look—especially around holidays— at what happened last year. ISM: Are complex algorithms involved in this type of analytical modeling? HAFFEY: Yes. The model types that we use are generally categorized as

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IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011

IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011
Table of Contents
On the Web
Editor’s Desk: Sharing Secrets
Dashboard: Movin’ to IBM - Opportunity Knocks Worldwide - Advanced Control
Data Display: IBM Devices Build on Innovation
Reflections on Change: Reflexite Corporation Improves Processes and Saves Money with an Outsourced Computing Model
A Cloud With a Brain: CloudBurst 2.1 Can Help Move IT from Cost Center to Revenue Source
Clouds Here and There: Making the Business Case for the Delivery Model
Trends: Digital Documentation Could Revolutionize IBM Business and Your Shelves
Next: How Police Departments Use Advanced Analytics to Keep People Safe
Solutions
Advertisers’ Index
Perspective: The New Economics of IT
Snapshot: Light Speed Is IT Director’s Superpower Wish
Reference Point
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - Cover2
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - 1
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - Table of Contents
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - 3
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - 4
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - 5
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - On the Web
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - 7
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - 8
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - 9
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - Editor’s Desk: Sharing Secrets
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - 11
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - Dashboard: Movin’ to IBM - Opportunity Knocks Worldwide - Advanced Control
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - 13
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - Data Display: IBM Devices Build on Innovation
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - 15
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - Reflections on Change: Reflexite Corporation Improves Processes and Saves Money with an Outsourced Computing Model
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - 17
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - 18
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - 19
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - A Cloud With a Brain: CloudBurst 2.1 Can Help Move IT from Cost Center to Revenue Source
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - 21
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - 22
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - 23
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - 24
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - 25
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - Clouds Here and There: Making the Business Case for the Delivery Model
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - 27
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - 28
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - 29
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - 30
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - 31
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - Trends: Digital Documentation Could Revolutionize IBM Business and Your Shelves
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - 33
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - 34
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - 35
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - Next: How Police Departments Use Advanced Analytics to Keep People Safe
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - 37
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - 38
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - 39
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - Solutions
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - 41
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - 42
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - 43
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - Advertisers’ Index
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - 45
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - Perspective: The New Economics of IT
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - 47
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - Snapshot: Light Speed Is IT Director’s Superpower Wish
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - Cover3
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - Cover4
IBM Systems Magazine, Power Systems Edition - February 2011 - Reference Point
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